Friday, 20 January 2012

PM Investment Strategy: When to buy, sell and hold by the ratios

I have learnt when investing in precious metals, regardless of which position you are building up, you should not use debt to build up your position, you should have a steady stream of income, and you should never touch your core position unless there is an extreme emergency.

The "core" position is basically like your retirement savings.  If you dollar cost average in, there's no price that is too expensive for the "core" position.  This position is your long term holding that you should never plan to sell unless there's an insane price movement (something like a 700% price increase within a year).



Once your core position is in place, you should consider looking into an "investment" position.  The investment position is basically the one you speculate on price action with and trade in and out, hoping to make a profit with.

YMMV, but with the "investment" position, some things I look at are:
The Dow:Gold ratio
The Gold:Silver ratio
The Gold:Platinum ratio

The Dow:Gold ratio, in my opinion is a simple one.  As long as the ratio is over 1:1, keep stacking.  Simple as that.  For me, when the Dow:Gold hits that level, that will be the time to look at getting out of the precious metals trade (not fully - I'll have gold and silver for the rest of my life, just by then, I think it will be a good indicator the market is rolling over).

Just starting in platinum, the Gold:Platinum ratio is one I watch, since platinum is traditionally more expensive than gold.  A low gold:platinum ratio means platinum is a better value than gold, meaning given the choice between buying 1 oz of platinum and 1 oz of gold at the same price, platinum may be the better buy.  Logistically, platinum is a little bit more difficult and not as widely accepted (or accessible) as gold and silver, so I'm not as excited about that trade as I am the gold/silver trade.  Even still, it's fun and I think a good way to diversify.

The Gold:Silver Ratio is the big one I watch.  With the GSR, when the ratio is high, that's a good time to swap gold for silver, when it's low, that's a good time to swap silver for gold.

I believe the long term prospects making a profit for gold and silver are very good.  Even if you just buy and hold one metal, I don't think you can go wrong.  However, I believe taking advantage of the different volatilities between the metals is a good way to make more of a profit, than just buying and holding.

Again, your mileage may vary and there is a LOT of risk in this trade.  Please do your own due diligence.  The precious metals markets are very volatile and you can lose a LOT of money (I know that first hand).

Good luck and keep stacking!

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