I wish I had known about Netdania back when the 2011 silver runnup happened.
I'm not saying technical indicators are perfect or that the charts can predict the future. But I AM saying that without studying the charts, it's impossible to come up with a plan on how to profitably stay in or get out from the market.
Without a plan, I believe you might as well take a trip to the casino, hit the roulette table and put all your money on red. I think with precious metals especially, you'd probably come out ahead at the casino.
One of my plans is to play the gold to silver ratio, swapping out gold or silver for one another at certain points. I'm not saying these are the best times to do it, this is just my PERSONAL plan.
Looking at the weekly chart, for the gold silver ratio there's a downtrend spanning from the downward spikes in the ratio over the past 10 years (the entire duration of the bull market, which I believe long term, is still going). I'm simply going to swap SOME of my silver for gold when it hits that downtrend. On my weekly price analysis so far, I have been showing the points where I will swap gold for silver.
The daily chart shows the uptrend I've been following for the past few months is being tested. I'll be watching this closely over the next few weeks to see if this means the start of another runnup in silver's price or not. Silver is still range bound from the pennant I've been watching in my pay day price analysis', so I'm still holding out in case there's a bottom of the lower trendline.
Still, maybe this could be the start of another exciting silver runnup.
Maybe it's nothing. Either way, I have my plans in place. I hope you do too.
UPDATE
Back when the GSR hit it's top a few weeks back, I think WW mentioned that was a good time to swap gold for silver. He absolutely was right. Gold bottomed roughly around that point, and I bought one of these bad boys (a Christmas present to myself - and a VERY beautiful coin - it was only $30 more than a normal 1oz maple, so it seemed like a decent deal).
It will be a bit ironic if someday, the RCMP come and confiscate my guns, which I suspect is a possibility, given the way they've decided to prohibit and confiscate firearms lately. Oh well, hopefully (for them) they won't come for my gold - because they won't find any.
A lesson learnt for my plans in the future:
When tracking a long term down trend as resistance, when the price tests it and fails, that's a good time to "sell."
In the case of the GSR, as happened over the Christmas break, it would have been a good time to "sell" some gold and buy some silver.
With gold it's a bit tricky though, because the price in dollars is so high (compared to silver), I am very silver heavy. The strategy I use for both gold and silver is the same - to maintain a core position in both metals. Right now, I believe silver is a way better value than gold, so my "core" gold position is very small. At least there's a "gun-grabber" coin in that collection now :)
Still, I have some gold I bought at $1400 or so, and if I buy 100 1oz silver maples at my local dealer, I can get them for very cheap. I believe this weekend, I'll stop by my gold-hidey hole, take out one of those maples, sell it and swap the proceeds and some cash I have on hand to load up on silver.
I think this is the best compromise though, to keep both some gold and fiat in the event there is a BIG silver smack down (think $25 range). There's a big move in the price of silver today - who knows, maybe it's the start?
I'm not saying technical indicators are perfect or that the charts can predict the future. But I AM saying that without studying the charts, it's impossible to come up with a plan on how to profitably stay in or get out from the market.
Without a plan, I believe you might as well take a trip to the casino, hit the roulette table and put all your money on red. I think with precious metals especially, you'd probably come out ahead at the casino.
One of my plans is to play the gold to silver ratio, swapping out gold or silver for one another at certain points. I'm not saying these are the best times to do it, this is just my PERSONAL plan.
Looking at the weekly chart, for the gold silver ratio there's a downtrend spanning from the downward spikes in the ratio over the past 10 years (the entire duration of the bull market, which I believe long term, is still going). I'm simply going to swap SOME of my silver for gold when it hits that downtrend. On my weekly price analysis so far, I have been showing the points where I will swap gold for silver.
The daily chart shows the uptrend I've been following for the past few months is being tested. I'll be watching this closely over the next few weeks to see if this means the start of another runnup in silver's price or not. Silver is still range bound from the pennant I've been watching in my pay day price analysis', so I'm still holding out in case there's a bottom of the lower trendline.
Still, maybe this could be the start of another exciting silver runnup.
Maybe it's nothing. Either way, I have my plans in place. I hope you do too.
UPDATE
Back when the GSR hit it's top a few weeks back, I think WW mentioned that was a good time to swap gold for silver. He absolutely was right. Gold bottomed roughly around that point, and I bought one of these bad boys (a Christmas present to myself - and a VERY beautiful coin - it was only $30 more than a normal 1oz maple, so it seemed like a decent deal).
It will be a bit ironic if someday, the RCMP come and confiscate my guns, which I suspect is a possibility, given the way they've decided to prohibit and confiscate firearms lately. Oh well, hopefully (for them) they won't come for my gold - because they won't find any.
A lesson learnt for my plans in the future:
When tracking a long term down trend as resistance, when the price tests it and fails, that's a good time to "sell."
In the case of the GSR, as happened over the Christmas break, it would have been a good time to "sell" some gold and buy some silver.
With gold it's a bit tricky though, because the price in dollars is so high (compared to silver), I am very silver heavy. The strategy I use for both gold and silver is the same - to maintain a core position in both metals. Right now, I believe silver is a way better value than gold, so my "core" gold position is very small. At least there's a "gun-grabber" coin in that collection now :)
Still, I have some gold I bought at $1400 or so, and if I buy 100 1oz silver maples at my local dealer, I can get them for very cheap. I believe this weekend, I'll stop by my gold-hidey hole, take out one of those maples, sell it and swap the proceeds and some cash I have on hand to load up on silver.
I think this is the best compromise though, to keep both some gold and fiat in the event there is a BIG silver smack down (think $25 range). There's a big move in the price of silver today - who knows, maybe it's the start?
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