Remember - we're talking physical here, folks.
Gold:
I think gold has a date with the 200 Day moving average (around $1617) and maybe a trend line going back to 2009 ($1526).
Silver:
Anytime silver is under it's 200 day moving average, I think it's on sale (200 day moving average, currently $36.83) . However, I think it's worth holding out to see if it tests the trend line from late 2010 ($29.82), as well as the 2008 trend line ($24.16).
Gold to Silver Ratio:
It will be interesting to see how this pennant gets resolved. It's really anyone's guess, but below 50.8 might start looking to favour a silver rally (priced in gold), but over 57.5 and the opposite is true.
Other thoughts:
A European economic catastrophe might bring with it a doomsday crash like that in 2008 (hence the 2009 trendline), but I believe it will be all driven by the paper market. This may well lead to a short term crash in the price of both metals, but as VisionVictory posted on his youtube channel, if silver hit the sub $24 mark, "all hell would break loose in the physical silver market."
The subsequent rally as millions of Europeans looking for a safe haven to store their wealth as their financial institutions collapse, I think could be quite epic.
Conclusion:
Fiat:
I'm going to take a nibble on silver, still waiting to a big correction to $24 before making a big purchase. Hold out on gold to see if it hits the 200 day moving average - but I probably will take a bite on this dip.
Gold to silver:
Watch for a GSR of 57.5 for a decent opportunity. I'd swap 1 oz, but keep some in case of a serious spike, up to something ridiculous, like up to 83.57.
Silver to gold:
Not even on the radar. I'd say not worth looking at until at least a GSR in the 40-45 range.
Until next pay check! Good luck everyone!
